Columns
Stimulus vs. Austerity: An Unsettled Debate
Many nations try both: “Aust-imulus?” Few subjects have so bitterly divided our insecure times than the double-edged saber of stimulus vs. austerity. Consensus over which course will lift the current economic malaise has eluded the dueling experts. Without clearer signals of success, many nations have tried a confused mix of both – let’s call it [...]
Viktor Orban’s David Act is a sad Joke
The government under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is seeking to frame the debate between itself and Hungary’s international partners, the EU and the IMF as the struggle between a valiant and democratically legitimated David (i.e. Viktor Orbán himself) and a multitude of sinister, illegitimately meddling Goliaths. Hungary won’t be told what to do by outsiders, [...]
Why No Responsible Democrat Should Want Newt Gingrich to Get the GOP Nomination
Republicans are worried sick about Newt Gingrich’s ascendance, while Democrats are tickled pink. Yet no responsible Democrat should be pleased at the prospect that Gingrich could get the GOP nomination. The future of America is too important to accept even a small risk of a Gingrich presidency. The Republican worry is understandable. “The possibility of [...]
New Year, Same Crisis
The measures introduced by the European Central Bank last December, especially the Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO), have relieved the liquidity problems of European banks, but have not cured the financing disadvantage of the highly indebted member states. Since high-risk premiums on government bonds endanger the capital adequacy of banks, half a solution is not [...]
The European Paradox: Brussels Must Become More ‘European’
Yet again historians, sociologists, cultural studies academics, and political scientists betray their academic duty. Previously they’ve shied away, in numbers far too big for comfort, from the problems of immigration, integration and Islam. They became traitors to their own expert knowledge on human society by failing to, in a timely and loud fashion, single out [...]
To Be or not to Be: The State of the Euro in 2012
2011 was supposed to be the make-or-break year for the euro. First it was weeks, then just a matter of days to save the euro. Yet, 2012 has begun and we are still paying our taxes and bills are writing our contracts in euros. Not only here in Brussels, but also in Bologna, Barcelona, Braga [...]
Kanzleramtology
The euro crisis has made Germany so important that anyone interested in the future of Europe – or even in economies outside the eurozone like the UK – now has to spend a lot of time trying to understand German thinking. As discussions continue about the details of the “fiscal compact” that will be agreed at the European [...]
Blogger, Politician, Populist? – Alexey Navalny’s Rise
Alexey Navalny may well be the first Russian internet politician. The charismatic 35 year old emerged not just as an online activist, but leading agitator of the nascent protest movement. His slogan – “Down with the Party of Crooks and Thieves” – has become the chant of the movement and his idea to “vote for anyone else [...]
Blogs
The Greater Depression – Britain worse than the 1930s
One thing everyone always says is that while this Lesser Depression may be bad, it’s nothing like the Great Depression. But this is in part an America-centered view: we had a very bad Great Depression, and have done better than many other countries this time around. As Jonathan Portes at Not the Treasury View points out, the [...]
Welder new leader of the Swedish Social Democrats
Yesterday, the Swedish Social Democrats’ party secretary, Carin Jämtin held a brief press conference where she announced that the party’s executive committee would submit a proposal on an acting party leader to the party board meeting on Friday. The former party leader, Håkan Juholt resigned on Saturday. According to Västerbottens Folkblad sources, the president of the trade [...]
UK – Switch to Plan B now
Against the backdrop of the open letter in The Guardian last year and the dismal UK growth figures for Q4 2011 published today, London’s Evening Standard asked me to write a letter for today’s paper. This is what I had to say: When last summer 51 other academics and I called on ministers to adopt [...]
IMF cuts Global Economic Growth Forecast
There we have it: The latest adjustment in global growth forecasts, this time by the IMF. These adjustments all have one thing in common: forecasts are always revised downwards and never upwards. The IMF announced: With intensifying strains in the euro area weighing on the global outlook, the International Monetary Fund has sharply cut its forecast for [...]
Is Angela Merkel changing course?
Angela Merkel has just given an interview on her European policies to a series of European newspapers including The Guardian and Sueddeutsche Zeitung. What kind of headlines can be produced out of the same interview is very interesting. The Guardian title reads: “Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown” whereas the Sueddeutsche Zeitung [...]
Will Austerity be ended in Davos?
The World Economic Forum 2012 is held again in Davos this week. It is the ‘Glastonbury of Globalisation‘ as Larry Elliott of The Guardian aptly put it; but the preparation for this year’s meeting was unusual as the so-called Global Issues Group, comprising members of the world’s multilateral and regional institutions, issued a strongly-worded warning message to [...]
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