debating progressive politics in Europe and beyond
Today’s unemployment numbers are not just depressing. They should make policymakers ashamed and everyone else extremely angry. 23.8 million men and women in the EU27, and 16.5 million in the euro area, were unemployed in December 2011. This is more than 20,000 more than in November, and the November figures have themselves been revised upwards [...]
My fellow SEJ-columnist George Irvin has made a bold prediction: Greece will be forced into default. Very soon. I agree with almost everything George has written over the last couple of years on the crisis. I also concur that the costs of a disorderly default will be huge. I am sure that he is wishing [...]
For several months I have been saying that Ms Merkel was going to push Greece out of the Eurozone (EZ). That prediction I fear is about to become a nasty reality. With the deal on a private sector write down still not agreed, Roubini’s RGE Monitor reports the ‘troika’ as saying: whatever the result of [...]
Neville Chamberlain is remembered today as the British prime minister who, as an avatar of appeasement of Nazi Germany in the late 1930’s, helped to usher Europe into World War II. But, earlier in that fateful decade, relatively soon after the start of the Great Depression, the British economy was rapidly returning to its previous [...]
I’m giving a talk in Paris today. Here are some slides; they won’t come as a shock to regular readers, but it may be useful to see them all in one place. First, I make the case that the overall economic crisis is driven by private debt, not public debt: Then I point to the [...]
It is frustrating that there was yet another Council meeting in Brussels and again none of the necessary steps were taken. Angela Merkel basically got what she wanted. Apart from Britain and the Czech Republic everybody looks set to sign up to her fiscal union, which will set in stone a constitutionalised version of the [...]
It is now increasingly clear that what started in late 2008 is no ordinary economic slump. Almost four years after the beginning of the crisis, developed economies have not managed a sustainable recovery, and even the better-off countries reveal signs of weakness. Faced with the certainty of a double-dip recession, Europe’s difficulties are daunting. Not [...]
Fifteen months ago I reported on what was then a affliction primarily hitting Anglo-Saxon politicians, Chronic Deficit Disorder (“neurotic fear of red ink”). Since then the malady has spread through Europe and entire populations. Throughout the developed world public sector deficits and debt are not the major problem, and in all but a few not [...]
Al Jazeera International produced a good roundup of the current problems of the Eurozone. I gave my two pennies worth at the end of the report: With the eurozone recession set to get worse, world leaders (…) will have to face a number of challenges. For two years the debt crisis has loomed over Europe. Greece, [...]
Further thoughts on the observation that the current British slump has now gone on longer than the slump of the 1930s. Is Britain unique? No, it isn’t. The NIESR has developed a monthly GDP series for Britain, which lets it use real-time data for the comparison. I can’t replicate that, but I can use the Maddison historical data and IMF data — including [...]
Irish democracy may become Europe’s focus in 2012, if the Merkel-Sarkozy ‘stability and growth union’ proposals are put to a vote of the Irish people. Any change to the Constitution of Ireland requires a referendum. The Irish Attorney General will examine the final wording of the fiscal compact in March before advising whether these proposals [...]
For the third year in a row, the eurozone is the weakest link in the world economy. In 2010, attention was focused on responses to the crisis on the eurozone periphery – Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. In 2011, the crisis moved to the core, with Italy and Spain feeling the heat, and concerns mounting about [...]
SocialEurope Journal: SEJ Article: At least nine EU countries in recession: stimulus urgently needed http://t.co/oNN0v98l SocialEurope Journal: SEJ Article: Kenya, Oil and Populism: Learning from Germany http://t.co/7lQ1UfWb SocialEurope Journal: SEJ Article: European Monetary Union: Doomed to fail or just another Stepping Stone? http://t.co/pMuqDvkA SocialEurope Journal: SEJ Article: German State Elections send Merkel an Economic Message http://t.co/yVG4Xr5n SocialEurope Journal: SEJ Article: Public Finances in France: There are Alternatives (TAA not TINA) http://t.co/B0QL31d1 SocialEurope Journal: New column: "Finding a Way out of the Crisis – Growth and Employment in Europe" by Sigmar… http://t.co/OOskY0EH SocialEurope Journal: SEJ Article: Creating Jobs in recession-hit Communities in Europe: Why Microcredit will not help http://t.co/zJb4XxJl 
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