PSOE steps into the 21st Century

There is no doubt that PSOE is going through a critical period after recording its largest defeat in Spanish democratic history in the last general election. With only 28.7% of the vote and 110 members of parliament, the socialist party lost the support of around 4.5 million people who voted for PSOE in 2008.

Over one third of these turned to the conservative party, the PP; another third to smaller centre and left forces, including UPyD and IU and the last third went into abstention or invalid vote, which increased by 2% compared to 2008. The previous May local and regional elections had already left PSOE out of government in most cities and regions. As a result, the PP is institutionally stronger and more powerful today than ever before.

Many analyses and interpretations of the electoral results have been published since the elections of November 20^th, particularly in the face of the upcoming party congress where a new Secretary General will be elected. Regardless of political affiliations and differing perspectives on the most relevant explanatory factors, there seems to be general consensus within the party on some essential conclusions.

First, the electoral results call for a serious reflection and renewal process, conducted with rigour, unity and a free and open debate within the party and broader society. The February Congress is expected to mark the first step in this direction, as the recent proliferation of manifestos, proposals and spaces for dialogue and debate that intend to inform it suggest.

Second, as many analysts point out it is clear that the economic crisis and its management by PSOE as perceived by voters have played a crucial role in the electoral results. According to some assessments, the most pragmatic socialist voters already changed their support during the first stage of the crisis, mostly to the PP, as they regarded the government’s response as delayed and weak.

On the other hand, more ideological voters turned to other left and centre options as they felt that the socialist party betrayed its ideals and values with the fiscal adjustment and reform process started in 2010. Overall, the desire for change in the context of a worsening economic situation and high and growing unemployment rates seemed to be more powerful than other considerations.

Third, despite the impact of the crisis, behind the 2011 results might lie certain trends that, in case they become permanent, could threaten the viability of PSOE as a governing party in the future and therefore the interests and aspirations of the majority of Spanish citizens that position themselves towards the left of the ideological spectrum.

Seen from this perspective, the last general election seems to confirm the consolidation of a pattern already observed in other European countries over recent years: the fragmentation of the centre-left vote. Smaller parties, including IU and Equo (new greens) have significantly increased their support, while UPyD has emerged as a new political force in the centre of the ideological spectrum with more than 800.000 votes. This is particularly worrisome in the Spanish context where all right-wing options are under the same PP umbrella.

Additionally, recent years have seen a constant deterioration of PSOE´s image of general competency and its credibility in economic affairs that need to be countervailed. Otherwise, the loss of over 1.5 million votes to PP and UPyD could become structural. The general assumption that conservative forces are better equipped to deal with the economic situation could be easily strengthened simply by the initiation of a naturally more favourable economic cycle during the current mandate.

Finally, the loss of socialist votes was concentrated in the younger and better educated population groups, traditionally core PSOE supporters. This indicates that the connection with the segment of the population that gave the 2004 victory to José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero has weakened over time.

This phenomenon might be related to the lack of adaptation of the party in its own functioning and structure to the new aspirations and requests of the younger generations and its out-of-date interaction and recruitment mechanisms. The unprecedented and precarious situation faced by young people in Spain also seems to partially account for their increasing disconnection with all public institutions including parties.

Based on these conclusions, it seems clear that PSOE will have to work with three objectives in mind in the years to come: (1) recovering its image of competence and credibility; (2) re-establishing the perception of ideological coherence; and (3) strengthening its seemingly lost image of progress or ¨modernity¨. These goals are surely related to policies, programmes, leaders and teams; but also to the way politics is conducted and regarded by the population.

At the crucial juncture that we face, social democratic parties throughout Europe can and must offer a truly credible and comprehensive alternative economic strategy for the 21st century that places decent employment, social justice and environmental concerns as top priorities, with a special focus on the so-called millennial generation. In addition, it is only logical and already overdue that progressive parties move ahead in the way they interact with citizens and work internally today by enhancing transparency, recruitment processes and participation as well as modernising communication tools and styles.

The two declared PSOE candidates to become Secretary General have acknowledged these issues in their programmes and campaigns. In particular, both Carme Chacón and Alfredo P. Rubalcaba have turned the modernisation of internal processes, structures and mechanisms to connect with citizens into a centre-piece of the internal renewal agenda, with proposals ranging from the establishment of French-style open primaries to new ways of engaging party members and citizens in a two-sided dialogue using the new communication technologies.

Regardless of the Congress results, the crystallisation and deepening of these democratic reforms, which are also underway in other social democratic parties across Europe, are likely to have a large impact on the future policy agenda and politics, generating a new landscape for other political forces too. One thing seems clear: the opening of this modernisation process by progressive parties will finally make them step into the 21st century.

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