“If the mountain will not come to Muhammad, then Muhammad must go to the mountain”. If one’s will does not prevail, one must submit to an alternative. So it happens with Mr Varoufaki’s analysis on the Greek election result whereby he tries to make a majoritarian political case for his personal economic view against the bail-out program.
According to Mr. Varoufakis, “while 55% voted for parties that stood explicitly against the ‘bailout’ terms and conditions, a pro-’bailout’ government is about to be formed – such is the nature of Greece’s electoral system (which rewards the largest party with a bonus of 50 additional MPs in the 300 seat chamber).“
Not disregarding the problematic nature of the super enhanced proportionality principle of the Greek electoral system, the actual election result data tells quite a different story. One where there is no contradiction, but rather a clear-cut result. The pro-bailout “noikokyraioi”, though marginally, have won this round of the class warfare in Greece.
In a highly polarized double election (May 6, June 17), with a pre-electoral period which lasted for more than two months, two fundamental dilemmas were formed:
- Drop the bailout program unilaterally or amend it through renegotiation
- Stay in the Euro or return to the Drachma
Accordingly Greek society was split in half. Two major social blocks rallied around those dilemmas and two political poles appeared representing the views and interests of every block.
On the winning side stands the social block of the so called Europeanists, made up by the “noikokyraioi”, that is the core of the middle classes in medium sized urban centers, provincial and rural Greece, people of a middle and older age, housewives and farmers but also liberal minded knowledge workers, entrepreneurs, as well as private and public sector workers and professionals with savings who feared a possible Grexit.
All these people demanded a return to political stability, assurances that Greece will stay in the Euro no matter what, continuation of the economic adjustment program, if possible with renegotiation of the terms of fiscal consolidation.
It is the “noikokyraioi” who won June’s election by voting for ND (29.7%), PASOK (12.3%), the Democratic Left (6.3%), the Liberal Dimiourgia Xana (1,6%) and the right wing LAOS (1,6%). This political multiparty pole scored an absolute electoral majority (above 50% of the total vote) and a parliamentarian majority of 48.2% between ND, PASOK and the Democratic Left, since the smaller two parties DIXA and LAOS did not pass the 3% threshold and therefore did not make it into parliament. This is the biggest parliamentary majority backing an elected government since 1974. Leader of this pole is the Conservative New Democracy party.
On the losing side stands the social block made up by the precariat class (young people who previously made up generation 700 Euros and are now looking into not having a job at all, precarious workers below the age of 51, the unemployed), as well as the insecure private and public sector workers, and self-employed living and working in the recession hit, decaying, crammed with irregular migrants and criminality ridden big urban centers.
They demanded a cancelation of the Economic Adjustment Program and hoped for a new politics against austerity, against recession, against foreign dependency and more than anything against the old political class.
It is voters of this social block who rewarded electorally the radical left wing party SYRIZA (26.9%), the extreme right wing Independent Greeks (7.5%), the ultra nationalist – fascist Golden Dawn (6.9%) and the Communist Party (4.5%). In absolute electoral percentage terms the second multiparty pole got below 50%, while in terms of parliamentary representation (excluding the parties that did not make it into parliament) they got about 45.8%. Impressive no doubt, but far from being a social majority as Varoufakis claims, not to mention winning the election.
Under the light of the above data, it is more than fair to argue that whoever implies, three days after the national election has taken place, that the governing coalition and the seats it has got in parliament are inconsistent with the will of the electorate, is either uninformed or wicked.
The June elections in Greece produced a clear result, a government backed by a social majority, though marginal, and a wide support in parliament. Whether this government will succeed is a whole different story, as is the suitability of the terms and conditions of the Economic Adjustment Program in helping Greece to exit the crisis. Evidently the program needs many adjustments. More than anything, Europe needs to choose a different economic path, away from the Lutheran moral economic dogma of Merkelian ordo-liberalism. This is not to say though that we social democrats and progressives must turn a blind eye to democracy’s fundamental rules.
All Content
Well, DIMAR positioned itself against the bailout and against austerity. And LAOS is a proto-fascist party that left the previous government over the bailout and austerity. So, where’s the majority now? There is none. Not to speak of the millions of voters that abstained. Greece is going down. Now it has the same corrupted, inefficient government than before the elections. Where was the point of voting at all? Democracy is cancelled in this country, when European leaders officially threaten the Greek population to vote for the old political class.
Can this government solve the crisis? No! Greece is bankrupt. Austerity will further destroy the country. I predict that this government will be history within a few months when Greece finally becomes ungovernable due to social and political unrest.
Well, being against austerity tells us very few things about social cleavages in Greece at the moment or the new political landscape, since pretty much all parties position themselves against it. We need to see the parties’ positioning against the fundamental polarizing dilemmas of the day, which split society and politics in two halfs. DIMAR positioned itself in the so called responsible governance block, which does not support unilateral solutions of the type promoted by SYRIZA and campaigned against SYRIZA for voters, managing to win an ideologically consiouss urban center left vote. DIMAR is currently the third pillar of the newly formed coalition government, backed by 48.2% of the vote. As far as LAOS is concerned their positioning was again for responsible governance, asking the right wing voters to think cleary, use their logic and rationality, drop their hard feelings and avoid parties such as Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn. Leaving aside the answer to the question as to who can solve the crisis and how (I am personnaly against the Lutheran moral economic dogma of Merkelian ordo-liberalism), the point here is that we are facing a changing social landscape in Greece that gave rise to a new bipolar, multiparty politics. If this remains like this in the years to come is something to be seen. Thank you very much for your comment.
The “responsible governance block” is responsible with regard to estimating the power and resentfulness of Germany’s elites. It’s far less responsible with regard to economic policies. It might have come up with a few sound policy proposals which in fact amount to a stop to desastrous austerity. Nonetheless, it is seen in Europe as Mrs. Merkel’s government and won’t therefore achieve anything. As the Greek economy is further collapsing, Berlin will demand ever more austerity. Your country is being subjugated into economic and social annihilation. Syriza was the force to openly tell the truth. That was also its main fault.
Despite its pronounced New Democracy coloration, the new “government of shared responsibility” gives Greece a fighting chance to stay in the euro, assuming the euro does not collapse from other causes first. At the same time, it also creates the dynamics for a future confrontation that favors SYRIZA, which hastily claimed the role of official opposition even before a new government was formed. That is, if the Samaras venture fails, that will effectively leave nothing standing from the old ND-PASOK political establishment, leaving SYRIZA as the most popular of the new forces that the crisis has engendered–new forces that, unfortunately, also include ultra-nationalists and neo-fascists. The aftershocks from the political earthquake created by SYRIZA’s May 6 surge may turn out to be more consequential that the initiating event.
What we have seen of the arguments against the deal, these are all directed at the troika, EU ECB and IMF but not against those in Greece that have profited from the bonanza in the previous years, those not paying taxes etc.
Perhaps Syriza had done so, but it is not reported back. The split on the left side caused the rightist, those who have profited in the past and will profit now in power. congratulations.
Bo Jonsson
SYRIZA is in a process of rapid and deep transformation from a small protest party of the radical Left into a big governing party of the mainstream Left. We could use the analogy of the governing communist AKEL in Cyprus.
I would agree that the scenario of SYRIZA evoluting into a “big governing party of the mainstream Left” is one possibility. A similar analogy would be PASOK between 1977 (which positioned it to make a serious bid for power in the subsequent elections) and its sweeping 1981 victory. Can you point to any concrete signs, however, that this “rapid and deep transformation” is in fact beginning to take shape? I think it is too early to tell.
I would say there are two signs.
The first one is the very analysis of the election results in Greece whereby SYRIZA has literaly looted the social spine of PASOK leaving it with nothing but it’s party base from here and there and a few dedicated centrist pro-reform voters. From a research point of view this is a trend with strong roots in the electorate.
The second is the decision of SYRIZA to become a party rather than a coalition of radical left wing fractions, thus trying to accomodate and represent the new social groups and thus solidify its social and electoral pool.
Finally I would not say that SYRIZA is like PASOK in the 70s. I would say that according to the data in hand, it could become a big governing party of the Left, where big is party playing between second and first place, but not able to govern alone. My estimate is that the Greek political scene in the near future will remain bipolar but fractured in terms of party politics with no party able to govern without a coalition partner. Again I agree with your remark that all these are possibilites and it is still too early to tell. Thank you for your comment.
The clear ‘winner’ of the Greek Elections were those Greeks who are in favour of receiving cart-loads of other EU Nation’s monies in order to prevent them from having to pay their Taxes etc.and for a profligate Greek Government to continue to wheedle and connive at doing really nothing very much at all to alter Greece’s inherent economic-fiscal-social ineptitude at a National level.
That is not to say there is nothing being done at all by the self-serving, self-indulgent top echelon of Greeks: Oh no, they have for many months now made sure that there is unfolding economic-social grief for ordinary Greek Citizens – - a parade of misewry played out on international media in order for the real culprits of this Greek tragedy to be able to point it out and beat their chests in fellow-feeling, but nothing much else at all – - the lower middle classes, the working class and the indigenous poverty-stricken (who as everyone knows are in every society and never fully go away; no, not even in the alleged societal haven of an EU continent of welfare) have all been obliged to pay an enormous price for the corruption and incompetence of previous Governments and their laggardly approach over decades to Corporate Greece and better-off Greek social-technocrat classes attending to their Civic Duty of Paying their Taxes at the Full Rate. Tke one example, ‘Privitisation’ of Nationally owned Greek enterprises such as Airports, Roads etc. From the outset of the first Bail-out conditions being negotiated (some 14 months ago) there was a ‘classic Greek’ pledge to sell-off these infrastructure to reduce Sovereign Public Expenditure: So, how many airports and toll roads have gone into private ownership bringing much needed Income to hard-pressed Greek Exchequer? NONE! Meanwhile ordinary Greeks in everyday jobs such as teaching, nursing, bus driving etc. plus pensioners have had their incomes slashed and pensions cut by between 30 and 50%! Oh yes, there has certainly been a clear-cut ‘victory’ for the ‘pro-EU/Brussels EUrozone’ shareholders… They’ve either sat on their accounts or transferred large segments overseas. Meanwhile they chant for help in countless earnest interviews, with that fixed mask face of concern so beloved of tragedians, for their lower order brethren who have been condemned to lose all their savings as they try to put food on the table!