Four Reasons Why Romney Might Still Win

Can Romney possibly recover? A survey conducted between Sept. 12 and Sept. 16 by the Pew Research Center — before the “47 percent victim” video came to light – showed Obama ahead of Romney 51% to 43% among likely voters.

That’s the biggest margin in the September survey prior to a presidential election since Bill Clinton led Bob Dole, 50% to 38% in 1996.

And, remember, this recent poll was done before America watched Romney belittle almost half the nation.

For the last several days I’ve been deluged with calls from my inside-the-beltway friends telling me “Romney’s dead.”

Hold it. Rumors of Romney’s demise are premature for at least four reasons:

1.  Between now and Election Day come two jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics – October 5 and November 2. If they’re as bad as the last report, showing only 96,000 jobs added in August (125,000 are needed just to keep up with population growth) and the lowest percentage of employed adults since 1981, Romney’s claim the economy is off track becomes more credible, and Obama’s that it’s on the mend harder to defend.

With gas prices rising, corporate profits shrinking, most of Europe in recession, Japan still a basket case, and the Chinese economy slowing, the upcoming job reports are unlikely to be stellar.

2. Also between now and Election Day are three presidential debates, starting October 3. It’s commonly thought Obama will win them handily but that expectation may be very wrong – and could work against him. Yes, Romney is an automaton — but when the dials are set properly he can give a good imitation of a human engaged in sharp debate. He did well in the Republican primary debates.

Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn’t been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them.

3. During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the Romney campaign and Romney’s super PACs, but other super PACS aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and non-profit “social welfare” organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove’s “Crossroads,” and various Koch-brothers political fronts – all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and radio spots, much of it spreading lies and distortions. Some of this money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives — to phone banks and door-to-door canvassing to identify favorable voters, and vans to bring them to the polling stations.

It’s an easy bet they’ll far outspend Obama and his allies. I’ve heard two-to-one. The race is still close enough that a comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the difference – which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to polling stations can be critical.

4. As they’ve displayed before, the Republican Party will do whatever it can to win — even if it means disenfranchising certain voters. To date, 11 states have enacted voter identification laws, all designed by Republican legislatures and governors to dampen Democratic turnout.

The GOP is also encouraging what can only be termed “voter vigilante” groups to “monitor polling stations to prevent fraud” – which means intimidating minorities who have every right to vote. We can’t know at this point how successful these efforts may be but it’s a dangerous wildcard. And what about those Diebold voting machines?

So don’t for a moment believe “Romney’s dead,” and don’t be complacent. The hard work lies ahead, in the next seven weeks.

And even if Obama is reelected, more hard work begins after Inauguration Day – when we must push him to be tougher on the Republicans than he was in his first term, and do what the nation needs.

This post was first published on Robert Reich’s Blog

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  • tommi konttinen

    True, Mitt Romney may still win the U.S. Presidential election in November – - all the more reason for every sensible person in Europe to pound their e-mail, phone contacts etc. in the USA and get out the ‘vote’ for Obama! I don’t have much to say where Romney is concerned and the reasons for why he is totally, absolutely, utterly unfit to be the 45th occupant of the Oval Office. I have no Faith at all in any ‘divine being’ and what follows is the general view of one Humanist and not neccesarily that of any other. I shall limit my view of Romney’s glaring unsuitability to hold any high Public Office never mind be required to make World-saving critical decisions on the following: Simply put – - Mr Romney believes in the 19th Century a Mr Smith directed by an ‘angel’ dug up a bunch of ‘Golden PLates’ and that on them in ‘reformed Egyptian’ language were ‘revelations’ that have been revered as the ‘Book of Mormon’ – - now, for sure I cannot state that Mr Romney is either deluded or his fellow Mormons, but I can deduce that someone who professes that is their ‘faith’ is in my opinion wholly unfit for Leadership of the Democratic World. I’m sorry, but the fact millions of decent Americans are prepared to vote for this Republican just exemplifies to me how far from factual reality the U.S.A. has slipped in the last decade or so!

  • http://www.pogge.ca Purple LIbrary Guy

    On point (1), the claim that the US economy is off track is one of the very few truths Romney ever utters. Admittedly, he would do his level best to push it still further off track, but on the economy, Obama and Romney are engaged in a tactical disagreement at most, about just how, how quickly, and how stealthily to go about funneling money towards the wealthy.