debating progressive politics in Europe and beyond
Economic forecasters exist to make astrologers look good. Most had forecast growth of at least 3 percent (on an annualized basis) in the first quarter. But we learned this morning (in the Commerce Department’s report) it grew only 2.5 percent. That’s better than the 2 percent growth last year and the slowdown at the end of the [...]
Repeated threats from North Korea have turned the Korean Peninsula into one of the world’s most dangerous hotspots. But the situation also offers an important opportunity: a gain in strategic trust between China and the United States, the two countries with the capacity to resolve the tensions once and for all. If they manage to [...]
In 2001, Goldman Sachs’ Jim O’Neill famously coined the term BRIC to characterize the world’s four largest developing economies – Brazil, Russia, India, and China. But, more than a decade later, just about the only thing that these countries have in common is that they are the only economies ranked among the world’s 15 largest (adjusted for [...]
What do Europeans think about the complex territorial disputes in East Asia such as the one between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands (the subject of the latest issue of China Analysis)? As we show in the third edition of the European Foreign Policy Scorecard, Europeans began to speak out on this increasingly important issue in [...]
This year has begun on a note of cautious optimism for the global economy. Europe is back from the brink. The United States did not fall over the fiscal cliff. Japan is moving to change its economic strategy, and China appears to be getting back on track. Financial-market indices in the US, moreover, are near [...]
As is customary at the start of a new year, imposing statistics and trend forecasts are being trumpeted worldwide. For example, in 2016, China is expected to replace the United States as the world’s largest economy. And, by 2040, India’s population will have reached 1.6 billion, surpassing China’s, which will have stagnated a decade earlier. [...]
As a result of the miraculous growth since the market-oriented reform in 1979, China’s status in the global economy has dramatically changed. This speech reflects on China’s unprecedented growth in the past 32 years, examines the reasons of that growth, and discusses prospects and challenges for China to maintain an eight-percent annual growth rate in [...]
In the shadow of the euro crisis and America’s fiscal cliff, it is easy to ignore the global economy’s long-term problems. But, while we focus on immediate concerns, they continue to fester, and we overlook them at our peril. The most serious is global warming. While the global economy’s weak performance has led to a [...]
The year 2012 turned out to be as bad as I thought. The recession in Europe was the predictable (and predicted) consequence of its austerity policies and a euro framework that was doomed to fail. America’s anemic recovery – with growth barely sufficient to create jobs for new entrants into the labor force – was [...]
The upswing in global equity markets that started in July is now running out of steam, which comes as no surprise: with no significant improvement in growth prospects in either the advanced or major emerging economies, the rally always seemed to lack legs. If anything, the correction might have come sooner, given disappointing macroeconomic data [...]
Last month, China unveiled its first aircraft carrier, and is gearing up to challenge the United States in the South China Sea. By initiating a plan to internationalize its currency, China is similarly seeking to challenge the dollar on the international stage. In carving out a global role for the renminbi, Chinese policymakers are proceeding [...]
Geologists have demonstrated that an earthquake is the end-product of many minor episodes of seismic slippage along a fault line; each smaller event increases the tension until finally the whole shebang erupts. History proceeds forward in a similar seismic fashion, and recent events in Europe bear this out. In fact, September 2012 may one day [...]
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