debating progressive politics in Europe and beyond
The recent elections in North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW) have produced a great result for the German Social Democratic party (SPD) and a crushing defeat for Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU). After a dozen years, and with a vote share of 39.1%, the SPD has re-emerged as the strongest party in Germany’s most populous state. The CDU, on the other hand, [...]
Francois Hollande has emerged as the new leader of Europe. Like the biblical young David, he has dared to challenge the Goliath-like consensus imposed by German conservatives, according to which only cutting budgets can get us out of the crisis. If he wins the battle, he may well become the King of the European Promised [...]
From the Fiscal Compact and Austerity to a Growth Compact and Prosperity Less than half a year ago the Fiscal Compact was being hailed by European leaders as the silver bullet which could permanently end the problem of government profligacy in the euro area, and which would help bring market confidence back to sovereign bond [...]
Or, actually, shrinkage. Watching Europe sink into recession – and Greece plunge into the abyss – I found myself wondering what it would take to convince the chattering classes that austerity in the face of an already depressed economy is a terrible idea. After all, all it took was the predictable and predicted failure of [...]
The almost nightly dose of television horror about Greece is hard to watch, and must be nearly unbearable for Greeks themselves — but it is going to get even worse. Even if the current ‘bailout’ package is approved by the troika (EU/ECB/IMF), Greece is headed towards serious conflict and possibly even a military coup. First, [...]
In late 2008, when the OECD countries had only just been hit by the credit crunch and Keynesians were arguing for a large stimulus package to offset private deleveraging, the German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück launched an unprecedented attack on Gordon Brown, accusing him of ‘crass Keynesianism’ and claiming that economic stimulus would merely ‘raise [...]
Back in June 2010, when George Osborne unveiled the Cameron government’s austerity plan, it was all about confidence: Higher interest rates, more business failures, sharper rises in unemployment, and potentially even a catastrophic loss of confidence and the end of the recovery. We cannot let that happen. This Budget is needed to deal with our country’s [...]
What does it mean to be a ‘Keynesian’? This column argues that, like so much in economics, the label has become politicised. The cost is an impoverished policy debate that is resulting in millions of avoidable job cuts. I joined the UK Treasury in 1987 and subsequently went to Princeton, where I studied with Rogoff [...]
For several months I have been saying that Ms Merkel was going to push Greece out of the Eurozone (EZ). That prediction I fear is about to become a nasty reality. With the deal on a private sector write down still not agreed, Roubini’s RGE Monitor reports the ‘troika’ as saying: whatever the result of [...]
I’m giving a talk in Paris today. Here are some slides; they won’t come as a shock to regular readers, but it may be useful to see them all in one place. First, I make the case that the overall economic crisis is driven by private debt, not public debt: Then I point to the [...]
Angela Merkel has just given an interview on her European policies to a series of European newspapers including The Guardian and Sueddeutsche Zeitung. What kind of headlines can be produced out of the same interview is very interesting. The Guardian title reads: “Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown” whereas the Sueddeutsche Zeitung [...]
The world economy is entering a new phase, in which achieving global cooperation will become increasingly difficult. The United States and the European Union, now burdened by high debt and low growth – and therefore preoccupied with domestic concerns – are no longer able to set global rules and expect others to fall into line. [...]
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